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trumbo-etal_2010_climate change_trout_Virginia.pdf
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whitman et al. 2010 climate change exposure ME.pdf
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Williams et al 2008 vulnerability climate change.pdf
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Determining suitable locations for seed transfer under climate change: A global quantitative method.
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Changing climate conditions will complicate efforts to match seed sources with
the environments to which they are best adapted. Tree species distributions may have to
shift to match new environmental conditions, potentially requiring the establishment of
some species entirely outside of their current distributions to thrive. Even within the
portions of tree species ranges that remain generally suitable for the species, local populations
may not be well-adapted to altered local conditions. To assist efforts to restore
forests and to maximize forest productivity in the face of climate change, we developed a
set of 30,000 quantitatively defined seed transfer ‘‘ecoregions’’ across the globe.
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Climate Projections FAQ
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USFS guidance on use of downscaled climate data
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Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?
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Author's abstract:
We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.
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Clark, J.S. et al. Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: climate and competition tracking of demographic rates
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Author's Abstract Forest responses to climate change will depend on demographic impacts in the context of competition. Current models used to predict species responses, termed climate envelope models (CEMs), are controversial, because (i) calibration and prediction are based on correlations in space (CIS) between species abundance and climate, rather than responses to climate change over time (COT), and (ii) they omit competition. To determine the relative importance of COT, CIS, and competition for light, we applied a longitudinal analysis of 27 000 individual trees over 6–18 years subjected to experimental and natural variation in risk factors. Sensitivities and climate and resource tracking identify which species are vulnerable to these risk factors and in what ways. Results show that responses to COT differ from those predicted based on CIS. The most important impact is the effect of spring temperature on fecundity, rather than any input variable on growth or survival. Of secondary importance is growing season moisture. Species in the genera Pinus, Ulmus, Magnolia, and Fagus are particularly vulnerable to climate variation. However, the effect of competition on growth and mortality risk exceeds the effects of climate variation in space or time for most species. Because sensitivities to COT and competition are larger than CIS, current models miss the most important effects. By directly comparing sensitivity to climate in time and space, together with competition, the approach identifies which species are sensitive to climate change and why, including the heretofore overlooked impact on fecundity.
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American Black Duck Decision Support Tool
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The Atlantic Coast Joint Venture Black Duck Decision Support Tool (DST) helps to identify the exact number of acres to protect, restore or maintain at the small watershed scale. Through this tool, land managers can determine the best way to contribute to achieving black duck goals anywhere on the landscape.
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Mountains to Sound Greenway Trust
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The Mountains to Sound Greenway National Heritage Area is a unique geographic corridor made up of connected ecosystems and communities spanning 1.5 million acres from Seattle to Ellensburg along Interstate-90 in Washington state. The Mountains to Sound Greenway Trust is a coalition-based organization that leads and inspires action to conserve and enhance this special landscape, ensuring a long-term balance between people and nature.
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USDA Invests More than $48.6 Million to Manage Risks, Combat Climate Change
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WASHINGTON, Feb. 21, 2023 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will invest more than $48.6 million this year through the Joint Chiefs’ Landscape Restoration Partnership for projects that mitigate wildfire risk, improve water quality, restore forest ecosystems, and ultimately contribute to USDA’s efforts to combat climate change. This year, the USDA Forest Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) will invest in projects, including 14 new projects, bringing together agricultural producers, forest landowners, and National Forest System lands to improve forest health using available Farm Bill conservation programs and other authorities.
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