Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining
Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. Some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding suffi- ciently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occur- rence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched com- pared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatch may be char- acterized by declining populations. Here we relate changes in spring migration timing by 100 European bird species since 1960, considered as an index of the phenological response of bird species to recent climate change, to their population trends. Species that declined in the period 1990–2000 did not advance their spring migration, whereas those with stable or increasing populations advanced their migration considerably. On the other hand, popu- lation trends during 1970–1990 were predicted by breeding hab- itat type, northernmost breeding latitude, and winter range (with species of agricultural habitat, breeding at northern latitudes, and wintering in Africa showing an unfavorable conservation status), but not by change in migration timing. The association between population trend in 1990 –2000 and change in migration phenology was not confounded by any of the previously identified predictors of population trends in birds, or by similarity in phenotype among taxa due to common descent. Our findings imply that ecological factors affecting population trends can change over time and suggest that ongoing climatic changes will increasingly threaten vulnerable migratory bird species, augmenting their extinction risk. conservation extinction risk migration phenology population trends
Sharply increased insect herbivory during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.8 Ma), an abrupt global warming event linked to a transient increase in pCO2, was comparable in rate and magnitude to modern anthropogenic climate change. Here we use plant fossils from the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming to document the combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on insect herbivory. We examined 5,062 fossil leaves from five sites positioned before, during, and after the PETM (59–55.2 Ma). The amount and diversity of insect damage on angiosperm leaves, as well as the relative abundance of specialized damage, correlate with rising and falling temperature. All reach distinct maxima during the PETM, and every PETM plant species is exten- sively damaged and colonized by specialized herbivores. Our study suggests that increased insect herbivory is likely to be a net long-term effect of anthropogenic pCO2 increase and warming temperatures. Bighorn Basin paleobotany plant–insect interactions rapid climate change
Global declines in oceanic nitrification rates as a consequence of ocean acidification
Ocean acidification produced by dissolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in seawater has profound conse- quences for marine ecology and biogeochemistry. The oceans have absorbed one-third of CO2 emissions over the past two centuries, altering ocean chemistry, reducing seawater pH, and affecting marine animals and phytoplankton in multiple ways. Microbially mediated ocean biogeochemical processes will be pivotal in deter- mining how the earth system responds to global environmental change; however, how they may be altered by ocean acidification is largely unknown. We show here that microbial nitrification rates decreased in every instance when pH was experimentally reduced (by 0.05–0.14) at multiple locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nitrification is a central process in the nitrogen cycle that produces both the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide and oxidized forms of nitrogen used by phytoplankton and other microorgan- isms in the sea; at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series and Hawaii Ocean Time-series sites, experimental acidification decreased am- monia oxidation rates by 38% and 36%. Ammonia oxidation rates were also strongly and inversely correlated with pH along a gradi- ent produced in the oligotrophic Sargasso Sea (r2 = 0.87, P < 0.05). Across all experiments, rates declined by 8–38% in low pH treat- ments, and the greatest absolute decrease occurred where rates were highest off the California coast. Collectively our results sug- gest that ocean acidification could reduce nitrification rates by 3–44% within the next few decades, affecting oceanic nitrous oxide production, reducing supplies of oxidized nitrogen in the upper layers of the ocean, and fundamentally altering nitrogen cycling in the sea.
Insects take a bigger bite out of plants in a warmer, higher carbon dioxide world
Excerpt from text : Because of the direct effect of CO2 and temperature on global food supplies, the influence of these changes on plant physiology and ecology is being actively studied (4–7). How these elements of global change may alter the interactions between plants and the insects that feed on them is relatively unknown. By bringing to light secrets contained in the fossil record, Currano et al. (8), published in this issue of PNAS, found that the amount and diversity of insect damage to plants increased in association with an abrupt rise in atmospheric CO2 and global temperature that occurred 55 million years ago. If the past is indeed a window to the future, their findings sug- gest that increased insect herbivory will be one more unpleasant surprise arising from anthropogenic climate change.
Higher origination and extinction rates in larger mammals
Do large mammals evolve faster than small mammals or vice versa? Because the answer to this question contributes to our understanding of how life-history affects long-term and large-scale evolutionary patterns, and how microevolutionary rates scale-up to macroevolu- tionary rates, it has received much attention. A satisfactory or con- sistent answer to this question is lacking, however. Here, we take a fresh look at this problem using a large fossil dataset of mammals from the Neogene of the Old World (NOW). Controlling for sampling biases, calculating per capita origination and extinction rates of boundary-crossers and estimating survival probabilities using cap- ture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods, we found the recurring pattern that large mammal genera and species have higher origination and extinction rates, and therefore shorter durations. This pattern is surprising in the light of molecular studies, which show that smaller animals, with their shorter generation times and higher metabolic rates, have greater absolute rates of evolution. However, higher molecular rates do not necessarily translate to higher taxon rates because both the biotic and physical environments interact with phenotypic variation, in part fueled by mutations, to affect origina- tion and extinction rates. To explain the observed pattern, we propose that the ability to evolve and maintain behavior such as hibernation, torpor and burrowing, collectively termed ‘‘sleep-or- hide’’ (SLOH) behavior, serves as a means of environmental buffering during expected and unexpected environmental change. SLOH be- havior is more common in some small mammals, and, as a result, SLOH small mammals contribute to higher average survivorship and lower origination probabilities among small mammals. body size environmental buffering metabolism Neogene mammals turnover
Higher effect of plant species diversity on productivity in natural than artificial ecosystems
Current and expected changes in biodiversity have motivated major experiments, which reported a positive relationship be- tween plant species diversity and primary production. As a first step in addressing this relationship, these manipulative experi- ments controlled as many potential confounding covariables as possible and assembled artificial ecosystems for the purpose of the experiments. As a new step in this endeavor, we asked how plant species richness relates to productivity in a natural ecosystem. Here, we report on an experiment conducted in a natural ecosys- tem in the Patagonian steppe, in which we assessed the biodiver- sity effect on primary production. Using a plant species diversity gradient generated by removing species while maintaining con- stant biomass, we found that aboveground net primary production increased with the number of plant species. We also found that the biodiversity effect was larger in natural than in artificial ecosys- tems. This result supports previous findings and also suggests that the effect of biodiversity in natural ecosystems may be much larger than currently thought. biodiversity carbon cycle ecosystem functioning Patagonian steppe resource partitioning
The impact of Miocene atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuations on climate and the evolution of terrestrial ecosystems
The Miocene is characterized by a series of key climatic events that led to the founding of the late Cenozoic icehouse mode and the dawn of modern biota. The processes that caused these developments, and particularly the role of atmospheric CO2 as a forcing factor, are poorly understood. Here we present a CO2 record based on stomatal frequency data from multiple tree species. Our data show striking CO2 fluctuations of 600–300 parts per million by volume (ppmv). Periods of low CO2 are contemporaneous with major glaciations, whereas elevated CO2 of 500 ppmv coincides with the climatic optimum in the Miocene. Our data point to a long-term coupling between atmospheric CO2 and climate. Major changes in Miocene terrestrial ecosystems, such as the expansion of grasslands and radiations among terrestrial herbivores such as horses, can be linked to these marked fluctuations in CO2. atmospheric CO2 fossil plants paleoclimates stomata C4 plants
Physiology and Climate Change
Studies of physiological mechanisms are needed to predict climate effects on ecosystems at species and community levels.
Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss
Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of con- servation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized accord- ing to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.
Traversing the mountaintop: world fossil fuel production to 2050
During the past century, fossil fuels—petroleum liquids, natural gas and coal—were the dominant source of world energy production. From 1950 to 2005, fossil fuels provided 85–93% of all energy production. All fossil fuels grew substantially during this period, their combined growth exceeding the increase in world population. This growth, however, was irregular, providing for rapidly grow- ing per capita production from 1950 to 1980, stable per capita production from 1980 to 2000 and rising per capita production again after 2000. During the past half century, growth in fossil fuel pro- duction was essentially limited by energy demand. During the next half century, fossil fuel production will be limited primarily by the amount and characteristics of remaining fossil fuel resources. Three possible scenarios—low, medium and high—are developed for the production of each of the fossil fuels to 2050. These scenarios differ primarily by the amount of ultimate resources estimated for each fossil fuel. Total fossil fuel production will continue to grow, but only slowly for the next 15–30 years. The subsequent peak plateau will last for 10–15 years. These production peaks are robust; none of the fossil fuels, even with highly optimistic resource estimates, is projected to keep growing beyond 2050. World fossil fuel production per capita will thus begin an irreversible decline between 2020 and 2030. Keywords: coal; fossil fuels; natural gas; peak fuel production; petroleum liquids; production scenarios
Increasing River Discharge to the Arctic Ocean
Synthesis of river-monitoring data reveals that the average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by7%from1936to1999.Theaverageannualrateofincreasewas2.00.7 cubic kilometers per year. Consequently, average annual discharge from the six rivers is now about 128 cubic kilometers per year greater than it was when routine measurements of discharge began. Discharge was correlated with changes in both the North Atlantic Oscillation and global mean surface air temperature. The observed large-scale change in freshwater flux has potentially important implications for ocean circulation and climate.
The Perfect Ocean for Drought
The 1998 –2002 droughts spanning the United States, southern Europe, and South- west Asia were linked through a common oceanic influence. Cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific and warm SSTs in the western tropical Pacific and Indian oceans were remarkably persistent during this period. Climate models show that the climate signals forced separately by these regions acted synergistically, each contributing to widespread mid-latitude drying: an ideal scenario for spatially expansive, synchronized drought. The warmth of the Indian and west Pacific oceans was unprecedented and consistent with greenhouse gas forcing. Some implications are drawn for future drought.
Moisture transport across Central America as a positive feedback on abrupt climatic changes
Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific ocean across Central America leads to relatively high salinities in the North Atlantic Ocean1 and contributes to the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water2. This deep water formation varied strongly between Dansgaard/Oeschger interstadials and Heinrich events— millennial-scale abrupt warm and cold events, respectively, during the last glacial period3. Increases in the moisture transport across Central America have been proposed to coincide with northerly shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and with Dansgaard/ Oeschger interstadials, with opposite changes for Heinrich events4. Here we reconstruct sea surface salinities in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past 90,000 years by comparing palaeotemperature estimates from alkenones and Mg/Ca ratios with foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios that vary with both tem- perature and salinity. We detect millennial-scale fluctuations of sea surface salinities in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean of up to two to four practical salinity units. High salinities are associated with the southward migration of the tropical Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, coinciding with Heinrich events and with Greenland stadials5. The amplitudes of these salinity variations are significantly larger on the Pacific side of the Panama isthmus, as inferred from a comparison of our data with a palaeoclimate record from the Caribbean basin6. We conclude that millennial- scale fluctuations of moisture transport constitute an important feedback mechanism for abrupt climate changes, modulating the North Atlantic freshwater budget and hence North Atlantic Deep Water formation.
FIXING THE SKY
When nations made plans to save the ozone layer, they didn’t factor in global warming. Quirin Schiermeier reports on how two environmental problems complicate each other.
The challenge of hot drought
1st paragraph: rought is heating up around the warm- ing world. Particularly hot drought has cost more than US$40 billion and claimed 218 human lives since 2010 in the United States alone1. These hot and dry conditions have also contributed to unusually widespread and devastating wildfires1, fuelled by wide expanses of weakened and dead trees that were unable to deal with heat stress and subsequent insect attack2. Yet, to get a real sense of how this recent change in drought severity might shape the future, one has to look to the past. An analysis of regional and pan- continental North American drought over the past 1,000 years, reported by Cook et al.3 in the Journal of Climate, makes it clear that recent droughts, as costly as they have been, are only a taste of what might lie ahead, independently of any big climate change.
Impacts of reforestation upon sediment load and water outflow in the Lower Yazoo River Watershed, Mississippi
Among the world’s largest coastal and river basins, the Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMRAV) is one of the most disturbed by human activities. This study ascertained the impacts of reforestation on water outflow attenuation (i.e., water flow out of the watershed outlet) and sediment load reduction in the Lower Yazoo River Watershed (LYRW) within the LMRAV using the US-EPA’s BASINS-HSPF model. The model was calibrated and validated with available experimental data prior to its application. Two simulation scenarios were then performed: one was chosen to predict the water outflow and sediment load without reforestation and the other was selected to project the potential impacts of reforestation upon water outflow attenuation and sediment load reduction following the conversion of 25, 50, 75, and 100% of the agricultural lands with most lands near or in the batture of the streams. Comparison of the two simulation scenarios (i.e., with and without reforestation) showed that a conversion of agricultural land into forests attenuated water outflow and reduced sediment load. In general, a two-fold increase in forest land area resulted in approximately a two-fold reduction in annual water outflow volume and sediment load mass, which occurred because forests absorb water and reduce surface water runoff and prevent soil erosion. On average, over a 10-year simulation, the specific water outflow attenuation and sediment load reduction were, respectively, 250 m3 /ha/y and 4.02 metric ton/ha/y. Seasonal variations of water outflow attenuation and sediment load reduction occurred with the maximum attenuation/reduction in winter and the minimum attenuation/reduction in summer. Our load duration curve analysis further confirmed that an increase in forest land area reduced the likelihood of a given sediment load out of the watershed outlet. This study suggests that reforestation in or around the batture of streams is a useful practice for water outflow attenuation and sediment load reduction.
Oligocene CO2 Decline Promoted C4 Photosynthesis in Grasses
C4 photosynthesis is an adaptation derived from the more common C3 photosynthetic pathway that con- fers a higher productivity under warm temperature and low atmospheric CO2 concentration [1, 2]. C4 evolution has been seen as a consequence of past atmospheric CO2 decline, such as the abrupt CO2 fall 32–25 million years ago (Mya) [3–6]. This relationship has never been tested rigorously, mainly because of a lack of accurate estimates of divergence times for the different C4 lineages [3]. In this study, we inferred a large phylogenetic tree for the grass family and es- timated, through Bayesian molecular dating, the ages of the 17 to 18 independent grass C4 lineages. The first transition from C3 to C4 photosynthesis occurred in the Chloridoideae subfamily, 32.0–25.0 Mya. The link between CO2 decrease and transition to C4 pho- tosynthesis was tested by a novel maximum likeli- hood approach. We showed that the model incorpo- rating the atmospheric CO2 levels was significantly better than the null model, supporting the importance of CO2 decline on C4 photosynthesis evolvability. This finding is relevant for understanding the origin of C4 photosynthesis in grasses, which is one of the most successful ecological and evolutionary innovations in plant history.
Old-Growth Forests Can Accumulate Carbon in Soils
1st paragraph: ld-growth forests have traditionally been considered negligible as carbon sinks because carbon uptake has been thought to be balanced by respiration (1). We show that soils in the top 20-cm soil layer in preserved old-growth forests in southern China accumulated atmospheric carbon at an unexpectedly high rate from 1979 to 2003. This phenomenon indicates the need for future research on the complex responses and adaptation of belowground processes to global environmental change.
Growth, carbon-isotope discrimination, and drought-associated mortality across a Pinus ponderosa elevational transect
Drought- and insect-associated tree mortality at low-elevation ecotones is a widespread phenomenon but the underlying mechanisms are uncertain. Enhanced growth sensitivity to climate is widely observed among trees that die, indicating that a predisposing physiological mechanism(s) underlies tree mortality. We tested three, linked hypotheses regarding mortality using a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) elevation transect that experienced low-elevation mortality following prolonged drought. The hypotheses were: (1) mortality was associated with greater growth sensitivity to climate, (2) mortality was associated with greater sensitivity of gas exchange to climate, and (3) growth and gas exchange were correlated. Support for all three hypotheses would indicate that mortality results at least in part from gas exchange constraints. We assessed growth using basal area increment normalized by tree basal area [basal area increment (BAI)/basal area (BA)] to account for differences in tree size. Whole-crown gas exchange was indexed via estimates of the CO2 partial pressure difference between leaf and atmosphere (pa-pc) derived from tree ring carbon isotope ratios (d13C), corrected for temporal trends in atmospheric CO2 and d13C and elevation trends in pressure. Trees that survived the drought exhibited strong correlations among and between BAI, BAI/BA, pa-pc, and climate. In contrast, trees that died exhibited greater growth sensitivity to climate than trees that survived, no sensitivity of pa-pc to climate, and a steep relationship between pa-pc and BAI/BA. The pa-pc results are consistent with predictions from a theoretical hydraulic model, suggesting trees that died had a limited buffer between mean water availability during their lifespan and water availability during drought – i.e., chronic water stress. It appears that chronic water stress predisposed low-elevation trees to mortality during drought via constrained gas exchange. Continued intensification of drought in mid-latitude regions may drive increased mortality and ecotone shifts in temperate forests and woodlands. Keywords: altitude, climate change, die-off, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, water availability
winds of change
On average, terrestrial near-surface winds have slowed down in recent decades. This change will affect both wind energy and hydrology.
