Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges
Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.
Contemporary Evolution of Reproductive Isolation and Phenotypic Divergence in Sympatry along a Migratory Divide
Understanding the influence of human-induced changes on the evolutionary trajectories of populations is a fundamental problem [1, 2]. The evolution of reproductive isolation in sympatry is rare, relying on strong selection along steep ecological gradients [3–7]. Improved wintering conditions owing to human activities promoted the recent establishment of a migratory divide in Central European blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) [8, 9]. Here, we show that differential migratory orientation facilitated reproductive isolation of sympatric populations within <30 generations. The genetic divergence in sympatry exceeds that of allopatric blackcaps separated by 800 km and is associated with diverse phenotypic divergence. Blackcaps migrating along the shorter northwestern route have rounder wings and narrower beaks and differ in beak and plumage color from sympatric south- west-migrating birds. We suggest that distinct wing and beak morphologies are ecomorphological adaptations resulting from divergent, multifarious selection regimes during migration. We hypothesize that restricted gene flow accelerates the evolution of adaptive phenotypic divergence toward the contrasting selection regimes. Similar adaptive processes can occur in more than 50 bird species that recently changed their migratory behavior [10, 11] or in species with low migratory connectivity. Our study thus illustrates how ecological changes can rapidly drive the contemporary evolution of ecotypes.
Biodiversity and the Feel-Good Factor: Understanding Associations between Self-Reported Human Well-being and Species Richness
Over half of the world’s human population lives in cities, and for many, urban greenspaces are the only places where they encounter biodiversity. This is of particular concern because there is growing evidence that human well-being is enhanced by exposure to nature. However, the specific qualities of greenspaces that offer the greatest benefits remain poorly understood. One possibility is that humans respond positively to increased levels of biodiversity. Here, we demonstrate the lack of a consistent relationship between actual plant, butterfly, and bird species richness and the psychological well-being of urban greenspace visitors. Instead, well-being shows a positive relationship with the richness that the greenspace users perceived to be present. One plausible explanation for this discrepancy, which we investigate, is that people generally have poor biodiversity- identification skills. The apparent importance of perceived species richness and the mismatch between reality and perception pose a serious challenge for aligning conservation and human well-being agendas.
Creating Wetlands: Primary Succession, Water Quality Changes, and Self-Design over 15 Years
The succession of vegetation, soil development, water quality changes, and carbon and nitrogen dynamics are summarized in this article for a pair of 1-hectare flow-through-created riverine wetlands for their first 15 years. Wetland plant richness increased from 13 originally planted species to 116 species overall after 15 years, with most of the increase occurring in the first 5 years. The planted wetland had a higher plant community diversity index for 15 years, whereas the unplanted wetland was more productive. Wetland soils turned hydric within a few years; soil organic carbon doubled in 10 years and almost tripled in 15 years. Nutrient removal was similar in the two wetlands in most years, with a trend of decreased removal over 15 years for phosphorus. Denitrification accounted for a small percentage of the nitrogen reduction in the wetlands. The wetlands were effective carbon sinks with retention rates of 1800–2700 kilograms of carbon per hectare per year, higher than in comparable reference wetlands and more commonly studied boreal peatlands. Methane emission rates are low enough to create little concern that the wetlands are net sources of climate change radiative forcing. Planting appears to have influenced carbon accumulation, methane emissions, and macrophyte community diversity.
Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model.pdf
Inclusion of fundamental ecological interactions between carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land component of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) leads to decreased carbon uptake associated with CO2 fertilization, and increased carbon uptake associated with warming of the climate system. The balance of these two opposing effects is to reduce the fraction of anthropogenic CO2 predicted to be sequestered in land ecosystems. The primary mechanism responsible for increased land carbon storage un- der radiatively forced climate change is shown to be fertilization of plant growth by increased mineralization of nitrogen directly associated with increased decomposition of soil organic matter under a warming climate, which in this particular model results in a negative gain for the climate-carbon feedback. Estimates for the land and ocean sink fractions of recent anthropogenic emissions are individually within the range of observational estimates, but the combined land plus ocean sink fractions produce an airborne fraction which is too high compared to observations. This bias is likely due in part to an underestimation of the ocean sink frac- tion. Our results show a significant growth in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the coming century, attributable in part to a steady decline in the ocean sink fraction. Comparison to experimental studies on the fate of radio-labeled nitrogen tracers in temperate forests indicates that the model representation of competition between plants and microbes for new mineral nitrogen resources is reasonable. Our results suggest a weaker dependence of net land carbon flux on soil moisture changes in tropical regions, and a stronger positive growth response to warming in those regions, than predicted by a similar AOGCM implemented without land carbon-nitrogen interactions. We expect that the between-model uncertainty in predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated anthropogenic climate change will be reduced as additional climate models introduce carbon-nitrogen cycle interactions in their land components.
Ecosystem Processes and Human Influences Regulate Streamflow Response to Climate Change at Long-Term Ecological Research Sites
Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-deficit ecosystems. Streamflow was correlated with climate variability indices (e.g., the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation), especially in seasons when vegetation influences are limited. Air temperature increased significantly at 17 of the 19 sites with 20- to 60-year records, but streamflow trends were directly related to climate trends (through changes in ice and snow) at only 7 sites. Past and present human and natural disturbance, vegetation succession, and human water use can mimic, exacerbate, counteract, or mask the effects of climate change on streamflow, even in reference basins. Long-term ecological research sites are ideal places to disentangle these processes.
Beyond Reserves and Corridors: Policy Solutions to Facilitate the Movement of Plants and Animals in a Changing Climate
As the Earth’s climate changes, many species will have to move across human-dominated landscapes to track suitable climates and changing ecosystems. Given the magnitude of projected future climate change, expanding and connecting reserve networks—two of the most commonly recommended adaptation strategies for protecting biodiversity in a changing climate—will be necessary but insufficient for preventing climate-induced extinctions. In the present article, we explore additional policy options that could be implemented to facilitate species movements in a changing climate. We discuss both existing and new policies that have the potential to increase landscape permeability, protect species on the move, and physically move species to address climate change. Keywords: climate change, adaptation, species movement, policy
Cross-scale Drivers of Natural Disturbances Prone to Anthropogenic Amplification: The Dynamics of Bark Beetle Eruptions
Biome-scale disturbances by eruptive herbivores provide valuable insights into species interactions, ecosystem function, and impacts of global change. We present a conceptual framework using one system as a model, emphasizing interactions across levels of biological hierarchy and spatiotemporal scales. Bark beetles are major natural disturbance agents in western North American forests. However, recent bark beetle population eruptions have exceeded the frequencies, impacts, and ranges documented during the previous 125 years. Extensive host abundance and susceptibility, concentrated beetle density, favorable weather, optimal symbiotic associations, and escape from natural enemies must occur jointly for beetles to surpass a series of thresholds and exert widespread disturbance. Opposing feedbacks determine qualitatively distinct outcomes at junctures at the biochemical through landscape levels. Eruptions occur when key thresholds are surpassed, prior constraints cease to exert influence, and positive feedbacks amplify across scales. These dynamics are bidirectional, as landscape features influence how lower-scale processes are amplified or buffered. Climate change and reduced habitat heterogeneity increase the likelihood that key thresholds will be exceeded, and may cause fundamental regime shifts. Systems in which endogenous feedbacks can dominate after external forces foster the initial breach of thresholds appear particularly sensitive to anthropogenic perturbations. Keywords: thresholds, plant-insect interactions, landscape disturbance, forest management, anthropogenic change
Biophysical controls on organic carbon fluxes in fluvial networks.pdf
Metabolism of terrestrial organic carbon in freshwater ecosystems is responsible for a large amount of carbon dioxide outgassing to the atmosphere, in contradiction to the conventional wisdom that terrestrial organic carbon is recalcitrant and contributes little to the support of aquatic metabolism. Here, we combine recent findings from geophysics, microbial ecology and organic geochemistry to show geophysical opportunity and microbial capacity to enhance the net heterotrophy in streams, rivers and estuaries. We identify hydrological storage and retention zones that extend the residence time of organic carbon during downstream transport as geophysical opportunities for microorganisms to develop as attached biofilms or suspended aggregates, and to metabolize organic carbon for energy and growth. We consider fluvial networks as meta-ecosystems to include the acclimation of microbial communities in downstream ecosystems that enable them to exploit energy that escapes from upstream ecosystems, thereby increasing the overall energy utilization at the network level.
Assessing the Causes of Late Pleistocene Extinctions on the Continents
One of the great debates about extinction is whether humans or climatic change caused the demise of the Pleistocene megafauna. Evidence from paleontology, climatology, archaeology, and ecology now supports the idea that humans contributed to extinction on some continents, but human hunting was not solely responsible for the pattern of extinction everywhere. Instead, evidence suggests that the intersection of human impacts with pronounced climatic change drove the precise timing and geography of extinction in the Northern Hemisphere. The story from the Southern Hemisphere is still unfolding. New evidence from Australia supports the view that humans helped cause extinctions there, but the correlation with climate is weak or contested. Firmer chronologies, more realistic ecological models, and regional paleoecological insights still are needed to understand details of the worldwide extinction pattern and the population dynamics of the species involved.
Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west
Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapolar climate. Using a fully coupled earth system model, we generate one possible future Arctic sea ice distribution. We use this ‘‘future’’ sea ice distribution and the corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to run a fixed SST and ice concentration experiment with the goal of determining direct climate responses to the reduction in Arctic sea ice that is projected to occur in the next 50 years. Our results indicate that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west and highlight the fact that the most severe impacts of future climate change will likely be at a regional scale.
Environment, vegetation and greenness (NDVI) along the North America and Eurasia Arctic transects
Satellite-based measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an index of vegetation greenness and photosynthetic capacity) indicate that tundra environments are generally greening and becoming more productive as climates warm in the Arctic. The greening, however, varies and is even negative in some parts of the Arctic. To help interpret the space-based observations, the International Polar Year (IPY) Greening of the Arctic project conducted ground-based surveys along two >1500 km transects that span all five Arctic bioclimate subzones. Here we summarize the climate, soil, vegetation, biomass, and spectral information collected from the North America Arctic transect (NAAT), which has a more continental climate, and the Eurasia Arctic transect (EAT), which has a more oceanic climate. The transects have broadly similar summer temperature regimes and overall vegetation physiognomy, but strong differences in precipitation, especially winter precipitation, soil texture and pH, disturbance regimes, and plant species composition and structure. The results indicate that summer warmth and NDVI increased more strongly along the more continental transect.
20th-Century doubling in dust archived in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core parallels climate change and desertification in South America
Crustal dust in the atmosphere impacts Earth’s radiative forcing directly by modifying the radiation budget and affecting cloud nucleation and optical properties, and indirectly through ocean fertilization, which alters carbon sequestration. Increased dust in the atmosphere has been linked to decreased global air tempera- ture in past ice core studies of glacial to interglacial transitions. We present a continuous ice core record of aluminum deposition during recent centuries in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, the most rapidly warming region of the Southern Hemisphere; such a record has not been reported previously. This record shows that aluminosilicate dust deposition more than doubled during the 20th century, coincident with the 1°C Southern Hemisphere warming: a pattern in parallel with increasing air temperatures, decreasing relative humidity, and widespread desertification in Patagonia and northern Argentina. These results have far-reaching implications for understanding the forces driving dust generation and impacts of changing dust levels on climate both in the recent past and future. aluminosilicate dust global warming human impacts Patagonia radiative transfer
Climate Change, Aboveground-Belowground Interactions, and Species’ Range Shifts
Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to current species’ range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the same time and rate. This variation causes community reorganization in both the old and new ranges. In terrestrial ecosystems, range shifts alter aboveground-belowground interactions, influencing species abundance, community composition, ecosystem processes and services, and feedbacks within communities and ecosystems. Thus, range shifts may result in no-analog communities where foundation species and community genetics play unprecedented roles, possibly leading to novel ecosystems. Long-distance dispersal can enhance the disruption of aboveground-belowground interactions of plants, herbivores, pathogens, symbiotic mutualists, and decomposer organisms. These effects are most likely stronger for latitudinal than for altitudinal range shifts. Disrupted aboveground-belowground interactions may have influenced historical postglacial range shifts as well. Assisted migration without considering aboveground-belowground interactions could enhance risks of such range shift–induced invasions.
Evolution of Grasses and Grassland Ecosystems
The evolution and subsequent ecological expansion of grasses (Poaceae) since the Late Cretaceous have resulted in the establishment of one of Earth’s dominant biomes, the temperate and tropical grasslands, at the expense of forests. In the past decades, several new approaches have been applied to the fossil record of grasses to elucidate the patterns and processes of this ecosystem transformation. The data indicate that the development of grassland ecosystems on most continents was a multistage process involving the Pale- ogene appearance of (C3 and C4) open-habitat grasses, the mid-late Cenozoic spread of C3 grass-dominated habitats, and, finally, the Late Neogene expansion of C4 grasses at tropical-subtropical latitudes. The evolution of herbivores adapted to grasslands did not necessarily coincide with the spread of open-habitat grasses. In addition, the timing of these evolutionary and ecological events varied between regions. Consequently, region-by-region investigations using both direct (plant fossils) and indirect (e.g., stable carbon isotopes, faunas) evidence are required for a full understanding of the tempo and mode of grass and grassland evolution.
Drought’s legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die-off and portends increased future risk
Forest mortality constitutes a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and car- bon-cycle feedbacks. Recent drought-induced, widespread forest die-offs highlight that climate change could acceler- ate forest mortality with its diverse and potentially severe consequences for the global carbon cycle, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. How trees die during drought over multiple years remains largely unknown and pre- cludes mechanistic modeling and prediction of forest die-off with climate change. Here, we examine the physiological basis of a recent multiyear widespread die-off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) across much of western North America. Using observations from both native trees while they are dying and a rainfall exclusion experiment on mature trees, we measure hydraulic performance over multiple seasons and years and assess pathways of accumu- lated hydraulic damage. We test whether accumulated hydraulic damage can predict the probability of tree survival over 2 years. We find that hydraulic damage persisted and increased in dying trees over multiple years and exhibited few signs of repair. This accumulated hydraulic deterioration is largely mediated by increased vulnerability to cavita- tion, a process known as cavitation fatigue. Furthermore, this hydraulic damage predicts the probability of interyear stem mortality. Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deteri- oration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage. As the most widespread tree species in North America, increasing vul- nerability to drought in these forests has important ramifications for ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and ecosystem carbon balance. Our results provide a foundation for incorporating accumulated drought impacts into climate–vege- tation models. Finally, our findings highlight the critical role of drought stress accumulation and repair of stress- induced damage for avoiding plant mortality, presenting a dynamic and contingent framework for drought impacts on forest ecosystems. Keywords: biosphere–atmosphere interactions, climate change, ecosystem shift, forest mortality, vegetation model, xylem cavitation, dieoff
Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians
Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environ- ments. The amphibians—frogs, salamanders, and caecilians—may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one- third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent, emerging infec- tious disease, chytridiomycosis, which appears to be globally distributed, and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease, which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of >200 species of amphibians, poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species, already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction. chytridiomycosis climate change population declines Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis emerging disease
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate- induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world’s forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide. heat, temperature, drought, tree mortality, forest dieoff
Afforestation Effects on Soil Carbon Storage in the United States: A Synthesis
Afforestation (tree establishment on nonforested land) is a management option for increasing terrestrial C sequestration and mitigating rising atmo- spheric carbon dioxide because, compared to nonforested land uses, afforestation increases C storage in aboveground pools. However, because terrestrial ecosystems typically store most of their C in soils, afforestation impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage are critical components of eco- system C budgets. We applied synthesis methods to identify the magnitude and drivers of afforestation impacts on SOC, and the temporal and verti- cal distributions of SOC change during afforestation in the United States. Meta-analysis of 39 papers from 1957 to 2010 indicated that previous land use drives afforestation impacts on SOC in mineral soils (overall average = +21%), but mined and other industrial lands (+173%) and wildlands (+31%) were the only groups that specifically showed categorically significant increases. Temporal patterns of SOC increase were statistically significant on former industrial and agricultural lands (assessed by continuous meta- analysis), and suggested that meaningful SOC increases require ≥15 and 30 yr of afforestation, respectively. Meta-analysis of 13C data demonstrated the greatest SOC changes occur at the surface soil of the profile, although par- tial replacement of C stocks derived from previous land uses was frequently detectable below 1 m. A geospatial analysis of 409 profiles from the National Soil Carbon Network database supported 13C meta-analysis results, indicating that transition from cultivation to forest increased A horizon SOC by 32%. In sum, our findings demonstrate that afforestation has significant, positive effects on SOC sequestration in the United States, although these effects require decades to manifest and primarily occur in the uppermost (and per- haps most vulnerable) portion of the mineral soil profile. Abbreviations: BD, bulk density; CI, confidence interval; MAP, mean annual precipitation; MAT, mean annual temperature; SOC, soil organic carbon.
Adaptive management of biological systems: A review
Adaptive Management (AM) is widely considered to be the best available approach for managing biolog- ical systems in the presence of uncertainty. But AM has arguably only rarely succeeded in improving bio- diversity outcomes. There is therefore an urgent need for reflection regarding how practitioners might overcome key problems hindering greater implementation of AM. In this paper, we present the first structured review of the AM literature that relates to biodiversity and ecosystem management, with the aim of quantifying how rare AM projects actually are. We also investigated whether AM practitioners in terrestrial and aquatic systems described the same problems; the degree of consistency in how the term ‘adaptive management’ was applied; the extent to which AM projects were sustained over time; and whether articles describing AM projects were more highly cited than comparable non-AM articles. We found that despite the large number of articles identified through the ISI web of knowledge (n = 1336), only 61 articles (<5%) explicitly claimed to enact AM. These 61 articles cumulatively described 54 separate projects, but only 13 projects were supported by published monitoring data. The extent to which these 13 projects applied key aspects of the AM philosophy – such as referring to an underlying conceptual model, enacting ongoing monitoring, and comparing alternative management actions – varied enormously. Further, most AM projects were of short duration; terrestrial studies discussed biodiversity conservation significantly more frequently than aquatic studies; and empirical studies were no more highly cited than qualitative articles. Our review highlights that excessive use of the term ‘adaptive man- agement’ is rife in the peer-reviewed literature. However, a small but increasing number of projects have been able to effectively apply AM to complex problems. We suggest that attempts to apply AM may be improved by: (1) Better collaboration between scientists and representatives from resource-extracting industries. (2) Better communication of the risks of not doing AM. (3) Ensuring AM projects ‘‘pass the test of management relevance’’.
