Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity
Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia’s intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society’s preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services.
Terrestrial water fluxes dominated by transpiration
Renewable fresh water over continents has input from precipitation and losses to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration .... The dominance of transpiration water fluxes in continental evapotranspiration suggests that, from the point of view of water resource forecasting, climate model development should prioritize improvements in simulations of biological fluxes rather than physical (evaporation) fluxes.
Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests
Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends6 and future projections7 point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions8 that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 may be over-optimistic.
The Montérégie Connection: linking landscapes, biodiversity, and ecosystem services to improve decision making
To maximize specific ecosystem services (ES) such as food production, people alter landscape structure, i.e., the types of ecosystems present, their relative proportions, and their spatial arrangement across landscapes. This can have significant, and sometimes unexpected, effects on biodiversity and ES. Communities need information about how land-use activities and changes to landscape structure are likely to affect biodiversity and ES, but current scientific understanding of these effects is incomplete. The Montérégie Connection (MC) project has used the rapidly suburbanizing agricultural Montérégien landscape just east of Montreal, Québec, Canada, to investigate how current and historic landscape structure influences ES provision. Our results highlight the importance of forest connectivity and functional diversity on ES provision, and show that ES provision can vary significantly even within single land- use types in response to changes in landscape structure. Our historical analysis reveals that levels of ES provision, as well as relationships among individual ES, can change dramatically through time. We are using these results to build quantitative ES-landscape structure models to assess four future landscape scenarios for the region: Periurban Development, Demand for Energy, Whole-System Crisis, and Green Development. These scenarios integrate empirical and historical data on ES provision with local stakeholder input about global and local social and ecological drivers to explore how land-use decisions could affect ES provision and human well-being across the region to the year 2045. By integrating empirical data, quantitative models, and scenarios we have achieved the central goals of the MC project: (1) increasing understanding of the effects of landscape structure on biodiversity and ES provision, (2) effectively linking this knowledge to decision making to better manage for biodiversity and ES, and (3) creating a vision for a more sustainable social- ecological system in the region.
Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges
National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.
Regional growth decline of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and its potential causes
Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) has experienced poor vigor, regeneration failure, and elevated mortality across much of its range, but there has been relatively little attention to its growth rates. Based on a well-replicated dendrochronological network of range-centered populations in the Adirondack Mountains (USA), which encompassed a wide gradient of soil fertility, we observed that the majority of sugar maple trees exhibited negative growth trends in the last several decades, regardless of age, diameter, or soil fertility. Such growth patterns were unexpected, given recent warming and increased moisture availability, as well as reduced acidic deposition, which should have favored growth. Mean basal area increment was greater on base-rich soils, but these stands also experienced sharp reductions in growth. Growth sensitivity of sugar maple to temperature and precipitation was non-stationary during the last century, with overall weaker relationships than expected. Given the favorable competitive status and age structure of the Adirondack sugar maple populations sampled, evidence of widespread growth reductions raises concern over this ecologically and economically important tree. Further study will be needed to establish whether growth declines of sugar maple are occurring more widely across its range.
Reconciling nature conservation and traditional farming practices: a spatially explicit framework to assess the extent of High Nature Value farmlands in the European countryside
Agriculture constitutes a dominant land cover worldwide, and rural landscapes under extensive farming practices acknowledged due to high biodiversity levels. The High Nature Value farmland (HNVf) concept has been highlighted in the EU environmental and rural policies due to their inherent potential to help characterize and direct financial support to European landscapes where high nature and/or conservation value is dependent on the continuation of specific low-intensity farming systems.
Hydrological connectivity in coastal inland systems: lessons from a Neotropical fish metacommunity
We assessed the influence of hydrological connectivity in structuring fish communities through seasonal samplings of environmental variables and fishes in a coastal lagoon and associated pools in the Restinga de Jurubatiba National Park, Brazil. Community structure attributes such as species richness, numerical density and biomass, Shannon–Wiener diversity index and evenness were compared between periods of the lowest and highest hydrological connectivity, while the environmental gradient and fish zonation were explored through ordination techniques. The greater hydrological connectivity established in the rainy season promoted the homogenisation of most environmental variables and fish species, which differed markedly from the arrangement observed in the dry season. Despite variation in fish species composition, community attributes showed non-significant differences between the dry and rainy seasons. The patterns of composition and numerical density in pools were strongly influenced by local factors, especially salinity, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorous concentration and water colour in the dry season, in addition to total nitrogen concentration and depth in the rainy season. Comparable to the role played by flood pulses in river-floodplain systems, the hydrological connectivity in these tropical coastal waterbodies seems to strongly influence fish community structure, and, therefore to determine regional biodiversity.
Seasonal and diel patterns in the migrations of fishes between a river and a floodplain tributary
The population behaviours associated with the migrations of fishes in lowland river ecosystems are amongst the most poorly-understood dispersal mechanisms of temperate freshwater organisms. This study evaluated the influence of four environmental variables (light levels, river discharge, water temperature and water velocity) on the timing, intensity and direction of fish movements between the River Avon (Hampshire, England) and a small floodplain tributary, Ibsley Brook, over a 12-month period. Using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to identify patterns of movement (by groups of species) and the relative strengths of explanatory variables in the data, the probability of fishes migrating between the river and tributary was determined using Bayesian modelling. The intensity and direction of fish movements between the river and tributary varied temporally, both on a diel and seasonal basis, and there were species- and age-specific patterns in behaviour. Diel movements appeared to be triggered by changes in light intensity and brook water velocity, whereas seasonal movements were mostly driven by changes in river discharge and water temperature, particularly those associated with floods. This study emphasises the importance of connectivity in river systems, as fishes migrated in all conditions, but especially during rapidly- rising discharge.
Preemptive and Salvage Harvesting of New England Forests: When Doing Nothing Is a Viable Alternative
Oneunexpectedconsequenceofnaturaldisturbancesinforestedareasisthatmanagersofteniniti- ate activities that may impose greater ecosystem impacts than the disturbances themselves. By salvage logging areas affected by windstorms or other impacts, by harvesting host trees in advance of insect infestation or disease, or by preemptively harvesting forests in an attempt to improve their resilience to future disturbances and stresses, managers initiate substantial changes in the ecosystem structure and function. Much of this activity is undertaken in the absence of information on the qualitative and quantitative differences between disturbance impacts and harvesting. To provide insight for such decisions we evaluated the ecosystem conse- quences of two major disturbance processes in New England (U.S.A.)—intense windstorms and invasive pests and pathogens—and contrasted them with impacts from preemptive and salvage harvesting. Despite dramatic physical changes in forest structure resulting from hurricane impacts and insect infestation, little disruption of biogeochemical processes or other ecosystem functions typically follows these disturbances. Indeed, the physical and organic structures produced by these disturbances are important natural features providing habitat and landscape heterogeneity that are often missing due to centuries of land use. From an ecosystem perspective there are strong arguments against preemptive and salvage logging or the attempt through silvicultural means to improve the resistance or resilience of forests to disturbance and stress. There are often valid motivations for salvage or preemptive logging including financial considerations, human safety, and a desire to shape the long-term composition and resource-production characteristics of forests. Nonetheless, there are many ecological benefits derived from leaving forests alone when they are affected or threatened by disturbances and pest and pathogen outbreaks.
Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States
Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mecha- nistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20–56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40–60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.
Indian-Set Fires in the Forests of the Northeastern United States
The historical evidence for the Indians' burning the forests of the northeastern United Abstract. States is reevaluated. Of 35 documents that describe vegetation or Indian life in the 16th or 17th centuries, only half mention any use of fire except for cooking. Only six purportedly first-hand accounts might refer to purposeful, widespread, and frequent use of fire. These six are all consistent with use of fire only locally near camps or villages, or with accidentally escaped fires. It is concluded that the frequent use of fires by the Indians to burn the forests was probably at most a local occurrence. The Indians' presence in the region and their use of fire for many purposes did, however, increase the frequency of fires above the low levels caused by lightning, and thus had some effect on the vegetation; for example, grasses characterized the ground cover at small, local, frequently burned sites.
Sensitivity of a Riparian Large Woody Debris Recruitment Model to the Number of Contributing Banks and Tree Fall Pattern
Riparian large woody debris (LWD) recruitment simulations have traditionally applied a random angle of tree fall from two well-forested stream banks. We used a riparian LWD recruitment model (CWD, version 1.4) to test the validity these assumptions. Both the number of contributing forest banks and predominant tree fall direction significantly influenced simulated riparian LWD delivery, but there was no apparent interaction between these factors. Pooled across all treatments, the average predicted 300-year cumulative LWD recruitment was 77.1 m”/lOO m reach with both banks forested compared to 49.3 m’/lOO m reach when only one side was timbered. Total recruitment within bank cover categories (one versus both forested) depended on the directionality of the falling stem. When only one bank was forested, the CWD model predicted the same riparian LWD recruitment for the random and CWD default tree fall patterns (-39 m3/100 m reach), the pattern biased toward the channel yielded twice this volume, a pattern quartering toward the channel produced 64% more LWD, and the pattern paralleling the channel contributed almost 30% less than random. With both banks forested, the random, default, and quartering simulations resulted in similar delivery (about 78 m3/100 m reach), the pattern biased toward the channel contributed almost 14% more LWD, and the parallel pattern yielded 26% less. Because CWD is similar in design and operation to other riparian LWD recruitment models, it follows that any simulation of wood delivery to streams should be checked for their consistency with local forest cover and tree failure patterns.
METABOLISM AS A CURRENCY AND CONSTRAINT IN ECOLOGY Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy
We test for the existence of asymmetries in consumer–resource thermal responses by analy- sing an extensive database on thermal response curves of ecological traits for 309 species spanning 15 orders of magnitude in body size from terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. We find that asymmetries in consumer–resource thermal responses are likely to be a common occurrence.Overall, our study reveals the importance of asymmetric thermal responses in consumer–resource dynamics. In particular, we identify three general types of asymmetries: (i) different levels of performance of the response, (ii) different rates of response (e.g. activation energies) and (iii) different peak or optimal temperatures. Such asymmetries should occur more frequently as the climate changes and species’ geographical distributions and phenologies are altered, such that previously noninteracting species come into contact.By using characteristics of trophic interactions that are often well known, such as body size, foraging strategy, thermy and environmental temperature, our framework should allow more accurate predictions about the thermal dependence of consumer–resource interactions. Ultimately, integration of our theory into models of food web and ecosystem dynamics should be useful in understanding how natural systems will respond to current and future temperature change.
Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures
Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth’s ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy–water–food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.
Megaproject reclamation and climate change
Megaprojects such as oil sands mining require large-scale and long-term closure and reclamation plans. Yet these plans are created and approved without considering future climate and hydrological conditions, jeopardizing the sustainability of reclaimed landscapes.
Impact of ocean acidification on the structure of future phytoplankton communities
Phytoplankton form the foundation of the marine food web and regulate key biogeochemical processes. These organisms face multiple environmental changes1, including the decline in ocean pH (ocean acidification) caused by rising atmospheric pCO2 (ref. 2). A meta-analysis of published experimental data assessing growth rates of different phytoplankton taxa under both ambient and elevated pCO2 conditions revealed a signif- icant range of responses. This effect of ocean acidification was incorporated into a global marine ecosystem model to explore how marine phytoplankton communities might be impacted over the course of a hypothetical twenty-first century. Results emphasized that the differing responses to elevated pCO2 caused sufficient changes in competitive fitness between phytoplankton types to significantly alter community structure. At the level of ecological function of the phytoplankton community, acidification had a greater impact than warming or reduced nutrient supply. The model suggested that longer timescales of competition- and transport-mediated adjustments are essential for predicting changes to phytoplankton community structure.
National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership
Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2 ◦ C or 1.5 ◦ C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions on such a path in 2025 or 2030 can be allocated to individual countries using a variety of allocation schemes. We reanalyse the IPCC literature allocation database and provide country-level details for three approaches. At this stage, however, it seems utopian to assume that the international community will agree on a single allocation scheme. Here, we investigate an approach that involves a major-economy country taking the lead. In a bottom-up manner, other countries then determine what they consider a fair comparable target, for example, either a ‘per-capita convergence’ or ‘equal cumulative per-capita’ approach. For example, we find that a 2030 target of 67% below 1990 for the EU28, a 2025 target of 54% below 2005 for the USA or a 2030 target of 32% below 2010 for China could secure a likely chance of meeting the 2◦C target in our illustrative default case. Comparing those targets to post-2020 mitigation targets reveals a large gap. No major emitter can at present claim to show the necessary leadership in the concerted effort of avoiding warming of 2 ◦ C in a diverse global context.
Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests
Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle (1,2) , and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century (3). However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions (4). We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan bo- real forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord (5) led to simulated C losses of 1.4 kg C m−2 (12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3 kg C m−2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends (6) and future projections (7) point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions (8) that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 may be over-optimistic.
Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability
A human body may be able to adapt to extremes of dry-bulb temperature (commonly referred to as simply temperature) through perspiration and associated evaporative cooling pro- vided that the wet-bulb temperature (a combined measure of temperature and humidity or degree of ‘mugginess’) remains below a threshold of 35 ◦ C. (ref. 1). This threshold defines a limit of survivability for a fit human under well-ventilated outdoor conditions and is lower for most people. We project using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this critical threshold under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future.
